Fresh economic indicators suggest that China’s primary property markets are beginning to decouple from the broader national slump. In February, Beijing and Shanghai both recorded 0.2 percent price increases for new homes, defying the general trend of decline seen in smaller municipalities. This resilience in the capital and the financial hub is being viewed as a potential precursor to a wider market floor.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that across 70 cities, 17 locations now show either flat or rising prices for new developments. This is more than double the number of cities that reported such stability in January. While the majority of cities still face challenges, the narrowing of the average decline suggests that the most volatile period of the housing correction may be passing.
Second-hand home markets also showed signs of life in the top tier. Beijing recorded a 0.3 percent rise in resold home values, while Shanghai saw a 0.2 percent increase. In contrast, Shenzhen and Guangzhou continued to struggle with declines of 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, illustrating a divergence even among the country’s most affluent cities.
The broader national picture remains sober when viewed over a 12-month horizon. New home prices in first-tier cities are down 2.2 percent year-on-year, while second-hand homes in the same bracket have plummeted 7.6 percent. These figures demonstrate that while the monthly bleeding has slowed, the aggregate wealth effect of the property downturn is still being felt by homeowners.
National policy is now pivoting to address these long-term issues through a “modernized industrial system.” This year’s work report emphasizes controlling new project starts to manage inventory levels while enhancing the “smart” features of new builds. Special attention is also being given to “first-child families,” with new subsidies and support measures designed to make homeownership more accessible for the next generation.